Author Archives: Manos Giakoumis

Further improvement of general government balance in August

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 43.2% y-o-y to €9,889m in 8M’12 from €17,409m last year, with primary balance recording a surplus of €1,440m from deficit of €4,161m in 8M’11.

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Fiscal consolidation envisaged in 2013 draft budget will primarily stem from further cost cutting

MoF unveiled the 2013 draft budget, which envisages a general government primary surplus of €2.2bn or 1.1% of GDP and deficit of €8.0bn or 4.2% of GDP, implying a 2.5pp improvement compared to 2012 latest estimates. Note that 2013 forecasts … Continue reading

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Credit Agricole picked Alpha Bank as preferred bidder for Emporiki Bank

Through a press release issued earlier today, Credit Agricole (CA) confirmed it picked Alpha Bank as the preferred bidder for the acquisition of 100% of Emporiki Bank. CA also announced it has entered into exclusive negotiations with Alpha Bank and … Continue reading

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Credit contraction remained stable in August

Latest BoG data show that credit contraction in the Greek market remained almost stable at 4.8% y-o-y in August, from 4.9% in July, with balances reaching €233.0bn corresponding to 111.7% of GDP. Loan balances eased 0.6% m-o-m with net flow … Continue reading

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Deposit flow reversed in August with slight outflows of €0.24bn

According to latest BoG data, deposit [private sector] flow reversed again in August with slight outflows of €0.24bn following inflows of €3.0bn in July.  It is reminded that outflows had peaked to €6.7bn in June and (a historic high) €9.2bn … Continue reading

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IMF brief update on current Greek economic situation

Following a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was asked to comment on recent press reports indicating a collapse in the discussions between the troika mission and the Greek authorities as well as … Continue reading

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Revenues rebounded in August; Budget balance continues to materially outperform targets

MoF final data on August budget execution depict a rebound of revenues (excl. tax refunds), which soared 24.7% in August, primarily due to the payment of (part of) the personal income tax, following the extension that had been given for … Continue reading

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New (final?) round of discussions on bank recapitalisation is launched

Recent press reports indicate that the long-awaited new – and most likely final – round of discussions on bank recapitalisation framework and terms has been launched. Same sources note that the deadline for the finalisation of all pending issues, which … Continue reading

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Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding slightly rose in August

According to the latest BoG data, Greek banks’ ECB funding rose by €6.9bn m-o-m to €30.9bn in August. At the same time, BoG liquidity provided to Greek banks through the ELA mechanism eased by €5.5bn m-o-m to €100.8bn.

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Revenues rebounded in August, budget balance materially better than target

MoF preliminary data on August budget execution depict a rebound of revenues (excl. tax refunds), which soared 19.3% in August, primarily due to the payment of (part of) the personal income tax, following the extension that had been given for … Continue reading

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Central government cash deficit substantially improved in August

According to data released by BoG, central government cash deficit (i.e. net balance of the state budget including movements in public debt management accounts) stood at €6.4bn in the first eight months of the year from €18.6bn last year, down … Continue reading

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Will current breeze turn to a wind of change?

ECB decision on unlimited bond purchases of euro area countries in trouble, even under strong conditionality, along with its acceptance of the ‘pari passu’ treatment of its sovereign bond holdings certainly improved market’s sentiment on the eurozone prospects and was … Continue reading

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Q2’12 GDP shrank 6.3% y-o-y

According to latest Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) data, non-seasonally-adjusted Q2’12 GDP shrank 6.3% y-o-y to €43.7bn, 0.1pp worse than the initial figure of 6.2% released on August 13. ELSTAT notes that the difference is due to June monthly data for … Continue reading

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General government cash deficit slipped 27.6% y-o-y in 7M’12

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 27.6% y-o-y to €10,609m in 7M’12 from €14,648m last year, with primary deficit substantially improving to just €229m from €4,056m in 7M’11.

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Developments are accelerating in the banking sector

The acquisition of the sound part of ATEbank by Piraeus Bank on July 27 kicked off, in my view, the long-awaited new round of consolidation in the Greek banking sector. Following this transaction Piraeus improved its deposit base, while became … Continue reading

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Deposits rebounded 2.2% m-o-m in July following inflows of €3.05bn

As expected, latest BoG data show that deposits [private sector] rebounded 2.2% m-o-m in July with inflows reaching €3.05bn, following the formation of the new coalition government in the second half of June. It is reminded that outflows peaked to … Continue reading

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Credit contraction accelerated in July

Latest BoG data depict an acceleration of credit contraction in the Greek banking market to 4.8% y-o-y in July from 4.3% in June with balances reaching €234.4bn corresponding to 111.9% of GDP. Loan balances eased 2.4% m-o-m with net flow … Continue reading

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July final budget execution data confirm preliminary figures: bottom-line surprises on the upside, revenues on the downside

MoF final data on July budget execution released today confirmed preliminary figures announced on August 10.

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Central government debt rises by €23.2bn q-o-q to €303.5bn in Q2’12

According to latest MoF data, central government debt stood at €303.5bnat the end of Q2’12, up by €23.2bn or 8.3% compared to Q1’12 (€280.3bn) and down by €50.2bn or 14.2% versus Q2’11 (€353.7bn), primarily reflecting PSI transaction.

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Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding eased by €5.3bn m-o-m to €130.3bn in July

Latest BoG data depict that Greek banks’ ECB funding dropped by €49.7bn m-o-m to €24.0bn in July. At the same time, BoG liquidity provided to Greek banks through the ELA mechanism climbed by €44.4bn m-o-m to €106.3bn.

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