Further improvement of general government balance in August

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 43.2% y-o-y to €9,889m in 8M’12 from €17,409m last year, with primary balance recording a surplus of €1,440m from deficit of €4,161m in 8M’11. Continue reading

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Fiscal consolidation envisaged in 2013 draft budget will primarily stem from further cost cutting

Posted on October 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF unveiled the 2013 draft budget, which envisages a general government primary surplus of €2.2bn or 1.1% of GDP and deficit of €8.0bn or 4.2% of GDP, implying a 2.5pp improvement compared to 2012 latest estimates. Note that 2013 forecasts incorporate targeted policy interventions of €7.8bn, currently under negotiation with the troika. Continue reading

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Credit Agricole picked Alpha Bank as preferred bidder for Emporiki Bank

Posted on October 1, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Through a press release issued earlier today, Credit Agricole (CA) confirmed it picked Alpha Bank as the preferred bidder for the acquisition of 100% of Emporiki Bank. CA also announced it has entered into exclusive negotiations with Alpha Bank and the deal is expected to be completed by YE’12. Continue reading

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Credit contraction remained stable in August

Posted on September 27, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest BoG data show that credit contraction in the Greek market remained almost stable at 4.8% y-o-y in August, from 4.9% in July, with balances reaching €233.0bn corresponding to 111.7% of GDP. Loan balances eased 0.6% m-o-m with net flow retaining its downward trend for second consecutive month on extended deductions of €1.05bn in August from €1.43bn in July and additions of €0.85bn in June. Continue reading

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Deposit flow reversed in August with slight outflows of €0.24bn

Posted on September 27, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to latest BoG data, deposit [private sector] flow reversed again in August with slight outflows of €0.24bn following inflows of €3.0bn in July.  It is reminded that outflows had peaked to €6.7bn in June and (a historic high) €9.2bn in May, on heightened sovereign risk due to the political uncertainty during the elections period (i.e. post May 6 and ahead of June 17 elections). Continue reading

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IMF brief update on current Greek economic situation

Posted on September 25, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Following a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was asked to comment on recent press reports indicating a collapse in the discussions between the troika mission and the Greek authorities as well as a budget shortfall of €20bn. Her response and comments provided a brief update of IMF views on current Greek economic situation without any major positive or negative surprise. Continue reading

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Revenues rebounded in August; Budget balance continues to materially outperform targets

Posted on September 21, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF final data on August budget execution depict a rebound of revenues (excl. tax refunds), which soared 24.7% in August, primarily due to the payment of (part of) the personal income tax, following the extension that had been given for the submission of income tax declarations, bringing the 8-month figure down 3.1% y-o-y (7M’12: -7.0%) to €33.0bn. Continue reading

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New (final?) round of discussions on bank recapitalisation is launched

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Recent press reports indicate that the long-awaited new – and most likely final – round of discussions on bank recapitalisation framework and terms has been launched. Same sources note that the deadline for the finalisation of all pending issues, which should be agreed by all involved parties (namely MoF, BoG, HFSF, troika and top-4 banks), was set at September 28. Continue reading

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Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding slightly rose in August

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to the latest BoG data, Greek banks’ ECB funding rose by €6.9bn m-o-m to €30.9bn in August. At the same time, BoG liquidity provided to Greek banks through the ELA mechanism eased by €5.5bn m-o-m to €100.8bn. Continue reading

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Revenues rebounded in August, budget balance materially better than target

Posted on September 11, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF preliminary data on August budget execution depict a rebound of revenues (excl. tax refunds), which soared 19.3% in August, primarily due to the payment of (part of) the personal income tax, following the extension that had been given for the submission of income tax declarations, bringing the 8-month figure down 3.8% y-o-y (7M’12: -7.0%) to €32.8bn. Continue reading

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Central government cash deficit substantially improved in August

Posted on September 11, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to data released by BoG, central government cash deficit (i.e. net balance of the state budget including movements in public debt management accounts) stood at €6.4bn in the first eight months of the year from €18.6bn last year, down 65.8% y-o-y, while August recorded a surplus of €0.8bn from deficit of €3.6bn last year. Continue reading

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Will current breeze turn to a wind of change?

Posted on September 7, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

ECB decision on unlimited bond purchases of euro area countries in trouble, even under strong conditionality, along with its acceptance of the ‘pari passu’ treatment of its sovereign bond holdings certainly improved market’s sentiment on the eurozone prospects and was probably among the most critical and concrete actions that have been taken since the beginning of the euro crisis. Although Greece has nothing to gain directly from this support, the indirect positive impact could be significant in the short to medium term as a result of a more stable euro and the emerging change of balances within the eurozone. Continue reading

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Q2’12 GDP shrank 6.3% y-o-y

Posted on September 7, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to latest Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) data, non-seasonally-adjusted Q2’12 GDP shrank 6.3% y-o-y to €43.7bn, 0.1pp worse than the initial figure of 6.2% released on August 13. ELSTAT notes that the difference is due to June monthly data for imports and exports and turnover indices for the service industries for Q2’12. Continue reading

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General government cash deficit slipped 27.6% y-o-y in 7M’12

Posted on September 3, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 27.6% y-o-y to €10,609m in 7M’12 from €14,648m last year, with primary deficit substantially improving to just €229m from €4,056m in 7M’11. Continue reading

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Developments are accelerating in the banking sector

Posted on September 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

The acquisition of the sound part of ATEbank by Piraeus Bank on July 27 kicked off, in my view, the long-awaited new round of consolidation in the Greek banking sector. Following this transaction Piraeus improved its deposit base, while became the second largest bank in the Greek market, leaving Eurobank and Alpha Bank in the third and fourth place respectively. Continue reading

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Deposits rebounded 2.2% m-o-m in July following inflows of €3.05bn

Posted on August 29, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

As expected, latest BoG data show that deposits [private sector] rebounded 2.2% m-o-m in July with inflows reaching €3.05bn, following the formation of the new coalition government in the second half of June. It is reminded that outflows peaked to €6.7bn in June and (a historic high) €9.2bn in May, on heightened sovereign risk due to the political uncertainty during the elections period (i.e. post May 6 and ahead of June 17 elections). Continue reading

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Credit contraction accelerated in July

Posted on August 28, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest BoG data depict an acceleration of credit contraction in the Greek banking market to 4.8% y-o-y in July from 4.3% in June with balances reaching €234.4bn corresponding to 111.9% of GDP. Loan balances eased 2.4% m-o-m with net flow resuming its downward trend with extended deductions of €1.4bn in July, from additions of €0.85bn in June and outflows of €0.94m in May. Continue reading

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July final budget execution data confirm preliminary figures: bottom-line surprises on the upside, revenues on the downside

Posted on August 22, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF final data on July budget execution released today confirmed preliminary figures announced on August 10. Continue reading

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Central government debt rises by €23.2bn q-o-q to €303.5bn in Q2’12

Posted on August 19, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to latest MoF data, central government debt stood at €303.5bnat the end of Q2’12, up by €23.2bn or 8.3% compared to Q1’12 (€280.3bn) and down by €50.2bn or 14.2% versus Q2’11 (€353.7bn), primarily reflecting PSI transaction. Continue reading

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Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding eased by €5.3bn m-o-m to €130.3bn in July

Posted on August 13, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest BoG data depict that Greek banks’ ECB funding dropped by €49.7bn m-o-m to €24.0bn in July. At the same time, BoG liquidity provided to Greek banks through the ELA mechanism climbed by €44.4bn m-o-m to €106.3bn. Continue reading

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