Upward revision of 2011 GDP contraction results in slightly lower fiscal adjustment

Hellenic Statistical Authority announced on October 5 it has revised upwards 2011 GDP contraction to 7.1% from 6.9% before. Following this revision, which is based on final or more updated data on certain accounts from 2006 onwards, 2011 nominal GDP now stands at €208.5bn, €6.6bn or 3.0% lower than the previous official estimate of €215.1bn, while the respective adjustment for 2010 stands at €5.2bn or 2.3%, with 2010 nominal GDP now amounting to €222.2bn from €227.3bn before.

It is also noteworthy that updated 2011 GDP estimates would accordingly result in a downward revision of the nominal GDP forecasts for 2012 and 2013 incorporated in the 2013 draft budget tabled to parliament on October 1. Furthermore, fiscal adjustment relative to GDP is slightly lower than previously reported, e.g. 2011 general government deficit (€19,394m in absolute numbers) now stands at 9.3% of GDP, 0.3pp higher than previously communicated. Moreover, additional fiscal effort should be achieved to reach the 6.6% and 4.2% gg deficit targets for 2012 and 2013 respectively.

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