Greek GDP contracted 7.2% y-o-y in Q3’12

According to flash estimates, released by Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), recession accelerated in Q3’12 with non-seasonally-adjusted GDP (at constant prices) contracting 7.2% y-o-y in Q3’12 from 6.3% y-o-y in Q2’12.

It is noteworthy that ELSTAT revised Q1 ’05 – Q2 ’12 GDP data, due to the recent revision of annual national accounts for 2006-2011. As a result, GDP contraction was revised to 4.9% (from 3.5%) in 2010, to 7.1% (from 6.9%) in 2011 and to 6.7% (from 6.5%) in Q1’12.

Furthermore, nominal GDP slipped 8.1% in Q3’12 and 7.3% y-o-y in 9M’12, while revision of previous years’ data pinpoint a contraction of nominal GDP by 3.9% (from 1.9%) in 2010 to €222.2bn and by 6.1% (from 5.4%) in 2011 to €208.5bn. Note that 2013-16 MTFS forecasts GDP to drop to €194bn in 2012 remaining below the €190bn mark until 2015.

Released figures imply a GDP contraction of 6.7% y-o-y in 9M’12 suggesting a deeper recession for 2012 compared to the latest forecasts of Greek government (6.5%) and European Commission (6.0%) released in November.

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