Latest Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) data show that non-seasonally-adjusted Q3’12 GDP shrank 6.9% y-o-y, 0.3pp better than the initial figure of 7.2% released on November 14. According to ELSTAT, the difference is due to September monthly data for imports and exports and turnover indices for the service industries for Q3’12.
The announced figures imply a GDP contraction of 6.6% in 9M’12, 0.1pp better than initial estimates. Note that latest Greek government and EC forecasts, disclosed in November, call for a recession of 6.5% and 6.0% respectively in 2012.
ELSTAT also said that non-seasonally-adjusted nominal GDP slipped 7.6% y-o-y in Q3’12, implying a nominal GDP contraction of 7.1% in 9M’12.
The contraction of GDP by 6.9% y-o-y in Q3’12 stems from:
- Reduction of total final consumption expenditure by 8.8% (Q2’12: -7.2%).
- Decrease in gross fixed capital formation by 19.5% (Q2’12: -19.4%).
- A surplus of €1.8bn in the external trade balance, reflecting a decline of imports by 20.9% (Q2’12: -12.3%) and a decrease of exports by 4.5% (Q2’12: -4.1%). In particular, imports of goods and services retreated 22.4% and 14.9% respectively, while exports of goods and services eased 0.5% and 7.1% respectively.