Greek GDP contracted 5.7% in Q4’12 and 6.4% in 2012

Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) latest data show that non-seasonally-adjusted Q4’12 GDP shrank 5.7% y-o-y, 0.3pp better than the initial (flash) estimate of 6.0% released on February 14. According to ELSTAT, the difference is due to December monthly data for imports and exports as well as turnover indices for the service industries for Q4’12.

It is noteworthy that GDP contraction in Q4’12 was the smallest among the four quarters of the previous year with Q1 and Q3’12 GDP narrowing by 6.7% and Q2’12 by 6.4%. The announced figures imply a GDP contraction of 6.38% in 2012, implying marginal improvement of 0.06pp compared to the initial (flash) estimate of 6.44%.

ELSTAT also said that non-seasonally-adjusted nominal GDP slipped 7.6% y-o-y in Q4’12, implying a nominal GDP contraction of 7.1% to €193.75bn in 201212.

The contraction of GDP by 5.7% y-o-y in Q4’12 stems from:

  • Reduction of total final consumption expenditure by 9.0% (Q3’12: -8.8%).
  • Deceleration in the decrease of gross fixed capital formation to 10.3% in Q4’12 from 19.5% in Q3’12.
  • A drop in the external trade deficit by 17.5%, reflecting a decline of imports by 8.1% (Q3’12: -20.9%) and a decrease of exports by 4.8% (Q3’12: -4.4%). In particular, imports of goods and services retreated 8.5% and 6.3% respectively, while exports of goods rose 2.7% and exports of services eased 13.9%.
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