Key highlights of ministerial cabinet act on Greek bank recapitalisation terms

Posted on November 13, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Through the release of a ministerial cabinet act, MoF unveiled on November 12 the long-awaited Greek bank recapitalisation scheme. Although, most of the announced terms were rumoured or leaked in the local press in the past few weeks, there was a negative reaction in the domestic market with banking shares plunging 14.4% on the day of the announcement. Continue reading

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Greek budget revenues rebounded in October; Budget balance continued to surprise on the upside

Posted on November 12, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF preliminary data (on a modified cash basis) on Greek budget execution (released on November 12) depicted a significantly improved performance in October compared to that of September with monthly budget and primary balance recording a surplus for second time so far in 2012 (the first was in August). Continue reading

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EC autumn forecasts on Greek economy

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to EC autumn forecasts released today, Greek GDP contraction is expected to extend into 2013 to 4.2% from 6.0% in 2012. EC latest estimates are worse than its previous (spring) projections for 2012, when GDP was expected to slip 4.7%, while 2013 forecast remains unchanged. Continue reading

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Some thoughts on the upcoming votes in the Greek parliament

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Over the past 3 years, there was an escalated uncertainty over Greece’s fiscal consolidation, then funding needs and ultimately debt sustainability. During last elections, the previously simmering disagreement and social anger over the imposed austerity measures was transformed into a protest ”negative” vote for the country’s leading political parties. Continue reading

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Slight improvement of Greece’s general government balance in September – Strong performance in 9M’12

Posted on November 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 48.3% y-o-y to €9,689m in 9M’12 from €18,744m last year, with primary balance recording a surplus of €1,249m from deficit of €4,146m in 9M’11. Continue reading

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IMF spokesman statements on Greece

Posted on November 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

During the regular bi-weekly press briefing held in Washington yesterday, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice confirmed that discussions on financing gap and debt sustainability have not been concluded, while there is good progress on fiscal and structural reforms. Continue reading

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Key highlights of Greece’s 2013 budget and 2013-16 MTFS

Posted on November 1, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF unveiled yesterday the 2013 budget and the 2013-16 Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy (MTFS). The key difference of MoF current forecasts compared to those included in the draft budget tabled to parliament on October 1 involves a deeper recession in 2013 (at 4.5% from 3.8% before) as well as a downward revision of historical GDP data (announced by ELSTAT on October 5) with a consequent worsening of all relative-to-GDP, particularly debt, ratios. Continue reading

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Draft plan on Greek bank recapitalisation terms

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Local press unveiled today the (final) draft plan on Greek bank recapitalisation terms, which is due to be discussed and approved at a meeting with the Hellenic Bank Association scheduled today at 1pm. Same sources indicate that recap terms may be included in the bills to be tabled to parliament in the coming days, in case there is a political agreement on austerity package. Continue reading

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Greek credit contraction slightly decelerated in September

Posted on October 26, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest BoG data show that credit contraction in the Greek market slightly decelerated to 4.5% y-o-y in September from 4.8% y-o-y in August, with balances reaching €231.8bn corresponding to 114.3% of GDP. Continue reading

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Greek deposits rebounded in September with inflows of €1.2bn

Posted on October 25, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to latest BoG data, deposits [private sector] rebounded in September with inflows of €1.16bn from slight outflows of €0.24bn in August and inflows of €3.0bn in July. Continue reading

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September revenues resumed a negative trend, yet budget balance outperformed targets

Posted on October 23, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

As he had previously noted, MoF had revised FY’12 – and accordingly monthly – budget targets in the September preliminary budget execution bulletin (released on October 11), incorporating its latest forecasts included in the 2013 draft budget tabled to parliament on October 1. Continue reading

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Revision of historical general government deficit and debt data

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) and Eurostat announced today the revised general government (gg) deficit and gross debt figures for 2008-11. It is reminded that statistical services’ previous data (first estimates for 2011) were released last April. Continue reading

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Latest update on Greek bank recapitalisation

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

With Greek bank recapitalisation needs and terms still pending and unclear, it is worth noting Eurobank Deputy CEO N. Karamouzis estimates, as they were presented at a recently held bank event in Cyprus. As it is already known top-4 Greek banks received a capital advance of €18bn last May from HFSF in the form of EFSF bonds to restore their capital adequacy ratio >8% and access to ECB funding. Continue reading

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Acquisition of Societe Generale’s Greek unit by Piraeus Bank

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Piraeus Bank announced on October 19 it signed a definitive agreement with Societe Generale (SocGen) for the acquisition of the latter’s entire stake (99.1%) in its Greek unit, Geniki Bank. The transaction is expected to be consummated before the end of the year and is subject to final regulatory approvals. Continue reading

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Alpha Bank acquired Emporiki Bank

Posted on October 17, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Alpha Bank announced earlier today it entered into a contract with Credit Agricole (CA) for the acquisition of 100% of its Greek unit, Emporiki Bank. Note that CA had announced on October 1 it had entered into exclusive negotiations, picking Alpha as the preferred bidder among the three Greek banks that had expressed interest for Emporiki acquisition. The closing of the transaction is expected within 2012. Continue reading

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Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding marginally eased in September

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest BoG data depict that Greek banks’ ECB funding marginally eased by €0.6bn or 2.0% m-o-m to €30.3bn in September. At the same time, BoG liquidity provided to Greek banks through the ELA mechanism remained almost flat (down €0.2bn or 0.2%) m-o-m at €100.6bn. Continue reading

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Revenues resumed a negative trend in September; Budget balance still outperforms revised targets

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

In the September budget execution bulletin, MoF revised FY’12 – and accordingly monthly – budget targets incorporating its latest forecasts included in the 2013 draft budget tabled to parliament on October 1. Continue reading

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IMF latest forecasts and statement on Greek economy

Posted on October 9, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

In its latest edition of World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor, IMF sees Greek GDP contracting 6.0% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2013, while unemployment rate is expected to substantially rise from 17.3% in 2011 to 23.8% in 2012 and to 25.4% in 2013. Continue reading

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A long-awaited Greek bank mega deal

Posted on October 8, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

National Bank of Greece (NBG) announced on October 5 late in the evening a voluntary share exchange offer to acquire 100% of Eurobank. NBG offers 58 new shares for every 100 Eurobank shares implying a premium of 7.0% and 3.6% on October 4 and 5 closing prices respectively. Continue reading

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Upward revision of 2011 GDP contraction results in slightly lower fiscal adjustment

Posted on October 6, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Hellenic Statistical Authority announced on October 5 it has revised upwards 2011 GDP contraction to 7.1% from 6.9% before. Following this revision, which is based on final or more updated data on certain accounts from 2006 onwards, Continue reading

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