July budget execution: bottom-line surprises on the upside, revenues on the downside

Posted on August 10, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

MoF data on July budget execution show that, after a temporary rebound in June, revenues (excl. tax refunds) resumed their downward trend easing by 18.6% y-o-y in July and bringing the 7-month figure down 6.9% y-o-y to€27.9bn. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Important macro and banking developments in an unusually interesting summer season

Posted on August 8, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Unlike previous years’ summer season, a lot of important macro, political and banking developments are taking place in Greece this year. The government has to identify cost cutting measures of €11.5bn for 2013-14 in an effort to convince international partners that it has the political will and capability to decide and implement the appropriate actions. Continue reading

Posted in Articles, Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Greek general government cash deficit eases to €9.9bn in 6M’12

Posted on August 2, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Latest MoF data show that general government deficit, according to cash data, eased by 12.9% y-o-y to €9,880m in 6M’12 from €11,347m last year with primary deficit substantially improving to €490m from €4,013m in H1’11. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Political leaders’ agreement and IMF MD statements provide support to Greece’s efforts

Posted on August 1, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

During a roundtable interview held at IMF headquarters in Washington, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde noted on Greece that Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Piraeus Bank absorbs the sound part of ATEbank

Posted on July 30, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

BoG announced that in the framework of the resolution measures prescribed in the relevant law (4021/2011), it has explored the potential interest of local and foreign banks for the acquisition of the sound part of ATEbank (90% owned by the Greek state). This part comprises mainly the performing loans and securities portfolio, as well as the full amount of all of the bank’s deposits. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

A proposal for improving Greece’s international perception

Posted on July 29, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

There is a motto saying that “Caesar’s wife is not enough to be honest, she must also show it”. Perception nowadays is even equally important to actions, meaning that a negative perception for a positive action is almost equivalent to a negative action. Continue reading

Posted in Articles, Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Greek loan expansion remained on negative grounds in June

Posted on July 27, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to BoG, total credit eased 0.8% m-o-m and 4.3% y-o-y in June (May: -4.5% y-o-y) reaching €240.2bn. Net flow rebounded with net additions reaching €851m in June, from net deductions of €940m in May, entirely attributed to corporate lending inflows of €1,067m, while household net flow remained on negative grounds (-€265m) for twenty-seventh consecutive month. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Greek deposit outflows continued unabated at €6.7bn in June – Reversal is expected in July

Posted on July 26, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

BoG data show that deposits [private sector] substantially dropped 4.4% m-o-m and 20.0% y-o-y to €150.6bn in June from €157.4bn in May. Deposit outflows continued unabated at €6.7bn, after reaching a new historic high of €9.2bn in May, on heightened sovereign risk due to the political uncertainty ahead of June 17 elections. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Eurobank new shareholder structure facilitates a potential merger

Posted on July 23, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Eurobank announced that EFG Group, currently holding 44.7% of Eurobank shares, in order to satisfy regulatory authorities intends to transfer 43.55% to nine younger members of the Latsis Family and to the John S. Latsis Public Benefit Foundation, each of whom will hold approximately 4.4% of Eurobank shares, while EFG Group will retain 1.15%. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Some thoughts on the media communication of Greek budget execution data to the public

Posted on July 23, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Media continue to downplay the decent primary expenditure performance, while focus and point out particularly the revenue lag. They also repeatedly mention total – and not primary – expenditure which includes interest payments and, particularly for this year, also incorporates one-off expenses related to the implementation of PSI. Continue reading

Posted in Articles, Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greek June budget revenues rebounded, yet still falling short of targets – bottom-line much better than targeted

Posted on July 23, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to the final data for 6M’12 budget execution released by MoF, revenues (excl. tax refunds) rebounded in June (up 3.0% y-o-y), after easing by 14.9% and 12.8% in the previous two months, bringing the 6-month figure down 4.4% y-o-y to €23.5bn. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

ECB will not accept GGBs as collateral as of July 25

Posted on July 23, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

ECB announced on July 20 that “due to the expiration on July 25 of the buy-back scheme for marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic, these instruments will become for the time being ineligible for use as collateral in Eurosystem monetary policy operations”. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Resignation of HRADF CEO

Posted on July 20, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) CEO Costas Mitropoulos submitted his resignation to FinMin on July 19. In his resignation letter he stressed that “the newly elected government has not given the support needed. Instead, they have indirectly yet systematically reduced the prestige and credibility (of HRADF) in the eyes of potential investors. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Greek political leaders agree on basic directions of cost cutting measures and policy actions

Posted on July 19, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

As expected, the leaders of the three coalition parties and FinMin did not provide much detail on cost cutting measures, following a 3-hour meeting held yesterday. FinMin Yannis Stournaras stated that “we had a very good discussion and agreed on the basic direction”. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greek banks’ Eurosystem funding at €135.6bn in June

Posted on July 18, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

According to the latest data for May and June released by BoG, Greek banks’ ECB funding eased by €58.6bn m-o-m to €3.45bn in May, while soared by €70.2bn m-o-m to €73.66bn in June. Continue reading

Posted in Greek banks, Greek economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

IMF updated forecasts on Greek economy

Posted on July 17, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

In its latest Fiscal Monitor , IMF notes that “the situation in Greece remains fluid stressing that macroeconomic deterioration and uneven reform implementation have weighed on revenues this year, while financing constraints are leading to under-execution of budgeted expenditures“. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

IMF Lagarde – “way premature to discuss extension”

Posted on July 16, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

In an interview with CNBC, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde stated on Greek new coalition government that “I’m quite pleased to see that the Greek authorities are aware of the fact that they have to demonstrate their determination to own, adopt and implement the program. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

IMF spokesman – “we are open to discuss better ideas”

Posted on July 13, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

During the regular bi-weekly press briefing, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice stated that “In terms of the main findings, it is too early to get into details, but I think we can say that there are policy implementation delays in a number of areas and it is clear that the economy is going through another difficult period. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greek June budget execution – Revenues rebounded, yet continued falling short of targets; bottom-line much better-than-expected

Posted on July 11, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

Revenues (excl. tax refunds) rebounded in June (up 2.0%), after easing by 14.9% and 12.8% in the previous two months, bringing the 6-month figure down 4.5% y-o-y. Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Greek general government deficit at €8.2bn in 5M’12

Posted on July 4, 2012 by Manos Giakoumis

General government deficit, according to cash data, stood at €8,183m in 5M’12 (5M’11: €8,049m) up just 1.7% y-o-y with primary surplus at €555m (5M’11: deficit of €1,985m), incorporating: Continue reading

Posted in Greek economy | Tagged , | Leave a comment